Update: 22.04.2024

Berlin Real Estate Report
Q2
2024

At the European Central Bank (ECB), a key interest rate cut is expected for the summer, and momentum in the real estate market is returning. Financing properties is already becoming slightly cheaper. The asking prices in Berlin are still in the negative compared with 20 months ago, at -3.10 %. However, in some districts, the values are already stabilizing. All data, facts, and insights from the Berlin real estate market are now available here.

Market revival in Berlin: asking prices in the first districts turn positive

Dear Readers,

Is the expectation of a lowering key interest rate by the ECB this summer likely to reverse the trend in Berlin's real estate market? After nearly 20 months of downturn, the situation is divided. In 11 districts, trends are turning positive, but the outlook remains unclear in the other 11 older districts. As of 22.04.2024 , the development over the past twelve months stands at -3.10 % percent. Shorter observation periods reveal a shallower price decline, with a slight increase of 0.30 % over the last three months.

Recent sales, previously down by 21 percent, are picking up again. Buyers are taking advantage of the low prices to secure profitable deals. Despite an average marketing period of 21 weeks, high-end lofts and penthouses are slower to sell compared to apartments.

The market for smaller houses, such as single-family homes, duplexes, and townhouses, has experienced relatively minor price adjustments, despite often poor energy ratings and marketing times nearly double those of last year. The apartment block market in the capital is also gaining momentum. In the first quarter of 2024, the number of listings and closings increased, with both multipliers and square meter prices dropping. This situation presents attractive opportunities for investors. We recommend taking advantage of the current balance between prices and availability. For more details, refer to our apartment block report and explore exceptional properties in our portfolio.

We remain closely connected to the market and will continue to keep you updated on significant developments. For buying or selling your properties in Berlin, we are your reliable partner.

Yours,
Peter Guthmann

Districts at a Glance

The asking price range for existing apartments in Berlin varies from approximately 3,700 to 8,100 EUR per square meter, representing average values across different districts. At the top of the list is the Mitte district, followed by Tiergarten, Prenzlauer Berg, Kreuzberg, and Wilmersdorf. The most affordable apartments, on average, are found in Marzahn-Hellersdorf and Spandau. A similar pattern is observed in new construction, where Mitte, Zehlendorf, and Prenzlauer Berg lead the average price list. The highest average rents for existing properties are currently demanded in Charlottenburg. In new constructions, micro-apartments in Köpenick lead, closely followed by Mitte and Tiergarten.

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+3.20 % 6,280 EUR/m²
-9.00 % 10,000 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
-2.50 % 5,900 EUR/m²
-4.20 % 9,200 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+0.50 % 4,750 EUR/m²
-8.20 % 7,280 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
-6.60 % 6,540 EUR/m²
-7.70 % 10,030 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
-3.10 % 4,470 EUR/m²
+4.80 % 7,090 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
-13.60 % 3,690 EUR/m²
-0.50 % 5,240 EUR/m²
Mitte
-6.10 % 8,110 EUR/m²
-3.00 % 12,800 EUR/m²
Moabit
-2.20 % 5,140 EUR/m²
-14.00 % 9,080 EUR/m²
Neukölln
-5.90 % 4,600 EUR/m²
+14.70 % 8,690 EUR/m²
Pankow
-4.50 % 4,780 EUR/m²
-8.10 % 7,020 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
-0.90 % 6,660 EUR/m²
-6.10 % 11,140 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
-1.10 % 4,260 EUR/m²
-3.30 % 7,250 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
-1.00 % 5,770 EUR/m²
+4.00 % 10,750 EUR/m²
Spandau
-3.60 % 3,960 EUR/m²
+2.20 % 6,470 EUR/m²
Steglitz
-1.50 % 4,830 EUR/m²
-5.30 % 7,740 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
-1.10 % 4,370 EUR/m²
-4.00 % 6,370 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
-7.20 % 7,680 EUR/m²
-16.40 % 10,000 EUR/m²
Treptow
-2.30 % 4,170 EUR/m²
+6.70 % 6,440 EUR/m²
Wedding
-6.00 % 4,380 EUR/m²
-2.60 % 7,500 EUR/m²
Weißensee
-5.90 % 4,790 EUR/m²
-2.80 % 8,450 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
-2.30 % 6,480 EUR/m²
+4.90 % 10,600 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
-5.00 % 5,380 EUR/m²
+15.50 % 11,650 EUR/m²

Existing Properties

The secondary market where existing properties are traded has shown consistent upward development over the past twelve years. A prolonged period of low interest rates, substantial migrations, attractive catch-up potential, and a significant housing deficit have driven the market into an upward spiral in recent years. Twelve years ago, the median price per square meter for an apartment in Berlin was approximately 1,950 EUR/m², whereas today, comparable properties are priced at around 5,350 EUR/m². This represents a value increase of about 175.00 % over the past twelve years. Owners who financed the purchase of their properties ten years ago could not yet benefit from the low interest rates that only fell below the 2 percent mark in 2016. Those who need refinancing in the current year 2024 for a purchase from 2014 can finance now at similar or slightly worse conditions.

Certified Average Values for Existing Properties in 2022 and 2023

District Mitte Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg Pankow Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf Spandau Steglitz-Zehlendorf Tempelhof-Schöneberg Neukölln Treptow-Köpenick Marzahn-Hellersdorf Lichtenberg Reinickendorf Berlin
2022 Average
Sale Price EUR/m²
5.976 6.024 5.933 6.169 3.595 5.092 4.917 4.923 4.231 3.733 4.403 4.128 5.344
2023 Average
Sale Price EUR/m²
5.844 5.844 5.623 5.906 3.457 4.793 4.699 4.653 4.179 3.503 4.382 3.994 5.105
Difference -2% -3% -5% -4% -4% -6% -4% -5% -1% -6% 0% -3% -4%
2022 No.
Transactions
1.258 1.266 1.238 1.565 464 1.037 1.239 748 551 142 317 512 10.337
2023 No.
Transactions
974 1.044 884 1.144 390 797 931 661 447 108 307 436 8.123
Difference -23% -18% -29% -27% -16% -23% -25% -12% -19% -24% -3% -15% -21%

GPT Highly Intriguing Investment Market

Berlin's housing stock present itself as highly intriguing for investors in 2024. After a phase of consolidation, many signs currently point to a rapid revitalization of the market. Given moderate purchase prices and the prospect of rising rents, investors can expect significant appreciation in value. Milieuschutz (social environment protection) and the prohibition of subdivision ensure that only a limited number of new apartments enter the market.

Price Index Berlin

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 5,350 EUR/m² - 8,300 EUR/m² -
1 Year 5,520 EUR/m² -3.10 % 8,560 EUR/m² -3.10 %
3 Years 5,110 EUR/m² 4.80 % 7,000 EUR/m² 18.60 %
5 Years 4,340 EUR/m² 23.30 % 6,160 EUR/m² 34.80 %
10 Years 2,500 EUR/m² 114.10 % 3,620 EUR/m² 129.50 %

Berlin Property Prices Set to Jump

In Berlin, property purchase prices have fluctuated seasonally over many years at most. By mid-2022, there was a decline in prices for the first time in a long time. The further course in the second quarter of 2024 will be influenced by the ECB's interest rate decisions.

Longer Marketing Periods and Increased number of Listings

Three price segments dominate the market for existing properties in Berlin. The price corrections from 2022 and 2023 have strengthened the lower price segment. Marketing times have lengthened, which is currently leading to a slight supply overhang. The chart shows the property listings on ImmoScout24.

Time on Market 2019 - 2023

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ø Weeks on Market 16.1 15.8 17.1 13.9 19.4

Market Clusters by Year of Construction and Apartment Sizes

The color spots illustrate the purchase offers clustered by year of construction, apartment sizes, and asking prices. The upper limit is 350 m² of living space and 15,000 EUR/m². It has been hidden for better readability of the rest of the market up to 250 m² of living space.

New Constructions

Is New Construction in Berlin Set for a Recovery?

2023 was not a good year for the new construction sector. This is evident from our analysis of the number of purchase agreements signed and the development of listing prices and notarized purchase prices. Additionally, we were interested in how many housing projects were at what stages. Price adjustments in new construction projects are rather unusual. In fact, the average notarized price per square meter remained at the previous year's level across Berlin in 2023. We found that while 2,063 units were sold in 2022, only 1,029 apartments from ongoing projects were sold last year, 2023. However, in the current year of 2024, we have already counted approximately 280 new apartment offers in the first quarter, suggesting a potential recovery in the segment.

Certified Average Values for New Construction Properties in 2022 and 2023

District Mitte Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg Pankow Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf Spandau Steglitz-Zehlendorf Tempelhof-Schöneberg Neukölln Treptow-Köpenick Marzahn-Hellersdorf Lichtenberg Reinickendorf Berlin
2022 Average
Sales Prices EUR/m²
10.764 8.908 7.231 9.873 6.561 7.782 8.970 7.318 8.043 5.240 6.399 7.069 7.922
2023 Average
Sales Prices EUR/m²
10.329 9.872 7.027 11.297 6.364 9.030 7.437 5.687 8.435 4.840 6.132 6.096 7.919
Difference -4% 11% -3% 14% -3% 16% -17% -22% 5% -8% -4% -14% 0%
2022 No. Transactions 108 205 362 153 126 52 216 7 465 115 198 56 2.063
2023 No. Transactions 52 124 123 43 69 32 83 8 290 42 111 52 1.029
Difference -52% -40% -66% -72% -45% -38% -62% 14% -38% -63% -44% -7% -50%

Development, Dynamics, and East-West Differences

In Berlin, only about one in six residents (16%) lives in their own home, one of the lowest rates of homeownership in all of Germany. However, more and more tenants want to break away from the competition for rentals and acquire their own property. Purchasing an existing rental apartment presents a viable alternative to the more expensive new construction, with the significant advantage of being able to continue living in the familiar environment. Although the Berlin constitution fundamentally supports the creation of homeownership, regulations such as the division prohibition and Milieuschutz introduce new obstacles.

On the right side of the graphic, the conversions of apartments in Berlin since 2011 are illustrated, while the left side shows new construction activities.

Less Sales Due to Rising Costs and Interest Rates

For many buyers, the higher equity requirements and the high interest rates pose a challenge - despite recently stable purchase prices. Over the past years, annual price increases were less due to margins and more due to increasingly expensive land and higher planning and construction costs. Ten years ago, the average list price per square meter for a new apartment in Berlin was 3,620 EUR/m². Currently, it stands at 8,300 EUR/m², almost 129.50 % percent higher.

Current Discussion, Planning, and Construction Activities in Berlin

What projects are currently being discussed, planned, or are already underway? Our map shows the current status of construction activity in Berlin. Is your project not included? Please contact us with information.

We have identified and classified numerous residential construction projects from various sources. Our overview map presents these projects, categorized by their development stage and with information on the number of planned housing units. It provides a quick view of whether a project is in the discussion, planning, or construction phase. In total, over 330 projects of various sizes have been recorded throughout the city of Berlin. Approximately one-third of these projects are currently in the discussion or preliminary planning stage, while around 130 are in the active construction phase.

Rental Housing Market Berlin

The development of the rental market in the German capital is influenced by migration, population growth, ownership rates, monetary policy, geopolitical crises, and housing policy. Over the last 20 years, Berlin has undergone many transformations. Internal migration and international arrivals met a market with relatively low rents, leading to decreased vacancies and rising rents after the turn of the millennium. The population increased, and districts became vibrant neighborhoods. Political measures focused on capping existing rents rather than on new construction, leading to a shortage of supply. The failed rent cap exacerbated this shortage, resulting in more rental properties being removed from the market and either sold or converted into temporarily rented, furnished apartments.

Status Quo

The rental market situation remains tense. Current market dynamics and the interest rate environment continue to put pressure on the already limited supply. Rising financing costs and higher equity requirements make purchasing a home more expensive, leading to increased demand in the rental sector. Additionally, the growing fragmentation of the rental market is making it more difficult to find housing.

  1. According to the 2023 "Mietspiegel" (rent index), the average rent for existing apartments in Berlin is 7.16 euros per square meter. The validity of this value is highly controversial. With the introduction of a qualified rent index in 2024, an increase in the average rent level of at least 10 percent is expected.
  2. In the standard rental market below 20 EUR/m², our calculations show the average rent in the current quarter is 13.55 EUR/m². The increase compared to the same period last year is about 11.50 %.
  3. Rents for new apartments and temporary rentals are currently averaging 28.05 EUR/m².

Rent Index Berlin

Period Existing buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100) New buildings Median Offer price Index (base 10 years = 100)
Current quarter 13.55 EUR/m² - 28.05 EUR/m² -
1 Year 12.15 EUR/m² 11.50 % 23.10 EUR/m² 21.40 %
3 Years 10.85 EUR/m² 24.80 % 18.60 EUR/m² 50.80 %
5 Years 10.95 EUR/m² 23.40 % 15.65 EUR/m² 79.30 %

How Big is Housing Shortage?

Determining the exact extent of the housing shortage in Berlin is challenging. However, comparing household numbers with housing stocks reveals the pressure in the local housing market. The "Treemap" exposes another fundamental problem of the scarce rental housing market through the calculated household size: The lack of alternatives for shrinking households leads to blocked trickle-down effects and exacerbates the housing issue because aging households cannot downsize. This results in large apartments being under-occupied and small apartments being over-occupied.

The Treemap displays the aggregated situation in the districts. Clicking on the districts takes you to the neighborhood level, and the back button returns you to the overall view. The red-green scale quantitatively shows the need, and the size of the boxes corresponds to the size of the local housing markets.

According to this method, there is a total housing deficit of approximately 112,000 units with a decreasing pressure from west to east. Some districts in East Berlin theoretically even have low fluctuation reserves. In the districts of Pankow, Köpenick, and Marzahn-Hellersdorf, the housing market is almost balanced, except for some neighborhoods.

More Housing by Deregulation

Is Berlin's acute housing problem characterized not only by a physical shortage but also by a high number of non-market active apartments? Survey results from the years 2011 (Census) and 2018 (Microcensus) indicate that the vacancy rate in the city might be higher than officially assumed. The 2022 Census vacancy figures are not yet available but may provide insights into this issue.

While the statistics from the Census and Microcensus provide imprecise figures, Berlin's extensive rent regulation evidently removes thousands of units from the rental market by economically pushing owners towards selling or furnished renting. Relaxing legal regulations, such as reverting to a nationwide 20 percent capping limit or issuing a real "Mietspiegel" (rent index), could invigorate the housing market and improve the availability of apartments.

Statistical vacancy rate by districts

 Apartments Vacant / No rented Vacancy Rate
Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 145.673 4.339 2,98%
Pankow 208.078 6.196 2,98%
Neukölln 161.694 5.735 3,55%
Treptow-Köpenick 131.501 3.586 2,73%
Marzahn-Hellersdorf 131.654 5.440 4,13%
Lichtenberg 144.971 4.694 3,24%
Reinickendorf 128.875 5.923 4,60%
Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf 181.166 5.985 3,30%
Spandau 116.975 5.210 4,45%
Steglitz-Zehlendorf 153.798 5.780 3,76%
Tempelhof-Schöneberg 180.002 5.949 3,30%
Source: Statistik Berlin Brandenburg, Zensus 2011

Rents for New Construction Units

The asking rents for new-build flats in Berlin currently average around 28.55 EUR/m², which corresponds to a price adjustment of around (Konnte keine Ergebnisse erhalten) compared to the same period last year. In 5 years, rents in new builds have thus increased by around (Konnte keine Ergebnisse erhalten)

Clustering of rental offers by year of construction and flat size (12 months)

The diagram visualises the rental offers clustered by year of construction classes, flat sizes and asking rents. Select the year of construction classes to be displayed in the menu. Status 22.04.2024 , median asking rents for existing and new builds.

Average Asking Rents by Districts

Development of asking rents in Berlin's districts. The asking rents are calculated retrospectively for three months in each case. Capping for existing properties at EUR 20/m². 

District Existing properties 12 month price development Existing properties Median offer price New properties 12 month price development New properties Median offer price
Charlottenburg
+22.10 % 18.30 EUR/m²
-12.10 % 26.70 EUR/m²
Friedrichshain
+11.40 % 14.95 EUR/m²
+6.40 % 27.65 EUR/m²
Köpenick
+2.90 % 12.85 EUR/m²
+60.20 % 32.00 EUR/m²
Kreuzberg
+1.10 % 12.65 EUR/m²
-12.60 % 25.00 EUR/m²
Lichtenberg
+10.90 % 13.40 EUR/m²
-3.90 % 19.70 EUR/m²
Marzahn-Hellersdorf
+1.60 % 10.30 EUR/m²
+2.40 % 16.50 EUR/m²
Mitte
+11.30 % 17.30 EUR/m²
-12.40 % 32.00 EUR/m²
Moabit
+10.40 % 13.95 EUR/m²
-28.40 % 26.20 EUR/m²
Neukölln
+9.30 % 12.10 EUR/m²
+1.20 % 22.85 EUR/m²
Pankow
+5.50 % 12.50 EUR/m²
-8.30 % 21.45 EUR/m²
Prenzlauer Berg
+4.40 % 14.65 EUR/m²
-14.40 % 24.30 EUR/m²
Reinickendorf
+5.40 % 11.60 EUR/m²
+4.50 % 21.50 EUR/m²
Schöneberg
+6.50 % 13.75 EUR/m²
-3.70 % 26.55 EUR/m²
Spandau
+13.90 % 10.95 EUR/m²
-4.60 % 17.40 EUR/m²
Steglitz
+7.50 % 14.00 EUR/m²
+4.20 % 21.95 EUR/m²
Tempelhof
+7.10 % 11.75 EUR/m²
+16.80 % 21.95 EUR/m²
Tiergarten
+15.10 % 16.65 EUR/m²
-3.70 % 30.00 EUR/m²
Treptow
+41.20 % 13.45 EUR/m²
+17.70 % 21.35 EUR/m²
Wedding
+3.10 % 11.70 EUR/m²
-7.40 % 25.00 EUR/m²
Weißensee
+10.40 % 15.05 EUR/m²
+21.80 % 26.40 EUR/m²
Wilmersdorf
+6.50 % 16.00 EUR/m²
-11.10 % 26.80 EUR/m²
Zehlendorf
+6.90 % 14.10 EUR/m²
-33.30 % 23.05 EUR/m²

Building Blocks

In the second quarter of the current year 2024, the consolidated Berlin rental property market is gaining momentum again. Last year, according to the Berlin Valuation Committee, there were a total of 588 sales of residential and commercial buildings. The average multiplier is currently estimated at just over 25, and the average price per square meter is 2,673 euros. However, not all locations and construction years react in the same way to high interest rates and energy aspects. We would be happy to advise you on this. You can find all relevant information in our rental property report in advance.

Market Dynamics and Price development

After prices for rental buildings in Berlin have risen across the board in recent years, there is currently a greater differentiation according to location and quality. This is shown by our evaluation with data from the Berlin Valuation Committee, with which we have determined the average price level and price range for the 22 old Berlin districts. Across the entire city of Berlin, the average closing for residential and commercial buildings was 2,189 EUR/m² of relevant floor space.

After prices for apartment buildings in Berlin have risen across the entire city in recent years, there is currently a greater differentiation by location and quality. We have used data from the Berlin Expert Committee to determine the average price level and price ranges for the 22 old districts of Berlin. Across Berlin as a whole, the average asking price for residential and commercial properties was 2,189 EUR/m² of value-relevant floor space. 

Price Ranges by Districts

Year Mitte Tiergarten Wedding Prenzlauer Berg Friedrichshain Kreuzberg Charlottenburg Spandau Wilmersdorf Zehlendorf Schöneberg Steglitz Tempelhof Neukölln Treptow Köpenick Lichtenberg Weißensee Pankow Reinickendorf Marzahn Hohenschönhausen Hellersdorf Jahr
2018 1.267 bis 5.247 1.255 bis 4.447 950 bis 3.004 1.582 bis 3.510 888 bis 5.793 1.165 bis 5.655 1.350 bis 6.401 301 bis 11.919 1.048 bis 5.366 1.526 bis 7.453 1.068 bis 3.089 1.065 bis 3.687 983 bis 2.817 695 bis 4.849 1.062 bis 3.873 1.081 bis 2.066 844 bis 4.840 805 bis 2.379 468 bis 4.652 570 bis 5.695 1.350 bis 2.959 500 bis 2.097 857 bis 2.320 2018
2019 1.208 bis 6.168 1.425 bis 3.647 874 bis 3.154 1.461 bis 4.964 1.395 bis 3.404 1.082 bis 4.197 1.423 bis 11.340 606 bis 3.192 1.601 bis 9.143 2.446 bis 5.173 1.314 bis 3.917 1.164 bis 4.071 862 bis 5.997 1.032 bis 2.941 1.318 bis 2.656 1.579 bis 2.650 698 bis 4.630 1.000 bis 3.376 671 bis 3.090 396 bis 4.839 1.018 bis 2.339 1.382 bis 2.028 846 bis 3.858 2019
2020 1.594 bis 8.481 1.454 bis 2.811 1.003 bis 4.084 1.310 bis 3.280 1.248 bis 3.284 1.424 bis 4.894 1.364 bis 6.181 431 bis 5.758 1.151 bis 10.526 3.230 bis 4.837 1.363 bis 4.841 1.637 bis 3.183 770 bis 4.909 592 bis 4.392 986 bis 4.069 930 bis 5.683 1.230 bis 5.748 1.126 bis 4.594 895 bis 2.819 654 bis 5.248 1.589 bis 3.255 1.729 bis 2.307 1.495 bis 3.090 2020
2021 1.603 bis 8.475 1.106 bis 3.422 841 bis 5.446 1.436 bis 6.835 1.314 bis 6.696 1.167 bis 4.264 1.570 bis 16.262 841 bis 4.633 1.596 bis 7.347 2.560 bis 6.944 1.625 bis 7.047 1.489 bis 5.253 1.125 bis 4.644 896 bis 6.326 1.794 bis 5.217 984 bis 5.812 1.142 bis 4.960 1.390 bis 3.167 1.109 bis 6.111 601 bis 3.873 2.006 bis 3.012 1.525 bis 4.482 1.248 bis 3.389 2021
2022 1.489 bis 16.844 1.193 bis 3.702 1.358 bis 3.867 347 bis 7.736 458 bis 3.141 862 bis 5.068 1.707 bis 6.579 472 bis 6.013 874 bis 7.043 1.976 bis 3.897 1.735 bis 4.707 1.799 bis 3.821 1.232 bis 3.670 824 bis 4.515 1.467 bis 2.931 1.716 bis 3.999 287 bis 6.116 1.691 bis 3.186 1.421 bis 5.626 954 bis 5.094 2.195 bis 2.733 1.081 bis 2.150 1.717 bis 4.312 2022
2023 2.158 bis 5.777 1.475 bis 1.750 919 bis 2.467 1.167 bis 2.964 1.374 bis 2.844 911 bis 6.567 1.093 bis 3.870 1.003 bis 4.608 203 bis 6.024 - 1.339 bis 1.993 1.827 bis 2.082 1.252 bis 2.570 886 bis 5.285 - 2.302 bis 3.520 357 bis 2.538 1.247 bis 5.177 1.424 bis 4.083 909 bis 4.065 1.266 bis 4.667 1.572 bis 3.585 1.425 bis 2.523 2023
Quelle: Gutachterausschuss Berlin, eigene Anfrage

Multipliers lower than before

The multiplier or factor is a measure that indicates the ratio of the purchase price of a property to the annual net cold rent. It shows how many years it would take for the purchase of the property to be amortized through rental income. The formula for this is: Factor = Purchase price / annual net cold rent. Due to the increased interest rates in 2023, the profitability of an investment in real estate has decreased. In this situation, investors increasingly base their decisions on a combination of location quality, the condition of the property, and its development potential. In 2023, the multiplier initially dropped significantly but has since stabilized.

Listings

It is generally not advisable to advertise an apartment building for sale openly on real estate listing sites. Many of these offers are difficult to sell, either because the asking price is too high or for other reasons. In addition, the asking price on property exchanges often does not reflect the actual market value. Nevertheless, we would like to show the development of apartment blocks offered on property exchanges in recent years. Our analysis reveals two key findings: Firstly, that the asking price is declining, and secondly, that although the number of openly offered properties has fallen considerably recently, it is still high in terms of overall turnover on the Berlin apartment block market. If you need support in getting out of the sales impasse of your property, please do not hesitate to contact us. We will develop an effective sales concept for your property.

Real Estate Market: Trends for 2024

After prices have fallen in almost all districts since mid-2022, asking prices for residential property in Berlin are currently settling at a lower level. They may have bottomed out. This is being driven indirectly by rising rents and the growing assumption that the ECB will not postpone interest rate cuts until the third or fourth quarter. In principle, the ECB has no direct influence on building interest rates. However, commercial banks are currently pricing the expectation of falling interest rates into falling construction interest rates. Pfandbriefe and government bonds are the investments that play an important role in this. Rents, in turn, are only a consequence of the unresolved housing problem in Berlin. Together with the influx of people with different motivations, there is no relief in sight. More influx, more demand, too little supply and the prospect of falling interest rates leave little room for further price reductions.

Everything therefore indicates that the property market in Berlin is coming to the end of its consolidation phase.

Investors with higher liquidity in particular are currently dominating the market. The prospects for investors are very good, particularly in the traditional market for rented flats.

In the apartment block segment, the easing of the energy turnaround and improved predictability of property investments are leading to a revival. Nevertheless, energy efficiency, overall condition and location factors remain decisive criteria when choosing a property. Buildings with a refurbishment backlog or energy efficiency deficits are priced into the market at a discount.

The new-build sector could see a noticeable recovery from the second half of 2024. The pressure on the rental market is too high for many consumers not to switch to ownership at a reasonable interest rate level. A recovery is also likely with regard to energy security and the regulatory environment for existing properties.

Legislators remain unpredictable with new approaches to further regulate the rental market. Above, we have shown the direct effect of the overturned rent cap on the rental supply.

European Central Bank Holds Rates Steady, Signals Peak in Interest Rate Cycle

In a series of ten adjustments, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the benchmark interest rate to 4.50 percent and is now (as of February 2024) entering its third consecutive interest rate pause. The last time the benchmark interest rate in the Eurozone was near this level was in the summer of 2008, amid the international economic crisis, at 4.25 percent, slightly below the current rate. About six months later, the ECB began to lower the rate in several steps. Economists are increasingly of the opinion that the interest rate adjustment of September 14, 2023, marked the peak.

The projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the ECB regarding the potential further course of inflation are closely aligned. The ECB anticipates that inflation will decrease steadily but slowly over the coming years. Against the backdrop of decreasing cost pressure and the ECB's monetary policy, inflation is expected to fall to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, potentially reaching 1.9% in 2026. According to these projections, inflation would return to the target corridor of just over 2 percent by 2025. Recently, mortgage rates have decreased by up to 1.2 percent for ten-year terms.

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This report was last updated on 22.04.2024 .

Disclaimer

The Guthmann Market Report is a semi-automated report about the property market in Berlin. All information has been carefully researched and is given to the best of our knowledge and belief. We assume no liability for completeness, deviations, changes and errors. Our report does not represent an investment recommendation.

Sources

Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg: Einwohnerregisterstatistik (Bewegungsdaten), Fortschreibung des Wohngebäude- und Wohnungsbestandes, Ergebnisse des Haushaltegenerierungsverfahren KOSIS-HHGen, Baufertigstellungen. IMV GmbH: Rohdaten Preise und Mieten. Senatsverwaltung für Stadtentwicklung und Wohnen: Umwandlungsdaten (2018), Geoportal Berlin (FIS-Broker). Immobilienverband Deutschland IVD (2018/2019): Immobilienpreisservice 2018/2019.

Methodology

Housing deficit (Treemap): The Statistics Office updates the household data based on the 2011 micro-census. Determination of household count and statistical household size via household generation procedures (KOSIS). We calculate the real household size / housing deficits via the ratio number of inhabitants to number of apartments.
Purchase prices and rents (charts and reports): Calculation of the median on the basis of raw data, own visualization.
Migrations: Aggregation and visualization based on transaction data.

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